“Today, the British Prime Minister has also said that the second wave has appeared in Britain; the second wave has been in France for half a month, and the second wave in Spain has been more than half a month…”
Zhang Wenhong told Shanghai Jiaotong University on the afternoon of the 20th that in China, people have been asking whether there is a second wave of an epidemic this winter. In this regard, he said: the second wave is inevitable.
Do not let the imported epidemic become a small fire again
Globally, why is novel coronavirus pneumonia uncontrollable and unbalanced between countries and regions? Zhang Wenhong expressed his thinking answer: in the final analysis, it has a great relationship with the characteristics of the new coronavirus.
The new coronavirus has very strong transmissibility, but the mortality rate is not high. “Unlike Ebola, not like SARS, not even like h1n9 avian influenza,” according to Zhang Wenhong, it is this very unique phenomenon that leads to the continuous spread of the virus all over the world.
In particular, he noted that the new coronavirus basically attacks the elderly, and only attacks young people when the whole social medical system is paralyzed. Therefore, under such special circumstances, young people in the United States and other countries are indifferent to the outside world, and the implementation of large-scale isolation can not be achieved. However, the new crown of “not so lethal” has precisely formed the “lethality” of the global epidemic situation. On the contrary, the virus that is not too virulent has become a strong enemy of the whole human race.
In China, under the guarantee of system and mechanism, we must complete 100% isolation.
The strategy is to do it within a month, “if you don’t do it, this little flame will burn up and become an exponential curve.” He revealed that China is still facing the risk of import. In the past two days, the state-organized a delegation to inspect the infectious disease prevention and control system in various provinces, so as not to let the imported epidemic situation become a small fire again.
The epidemic will continue for quite a long time
Next, what to do? Zhang Wenhong predicted that, in principle, the epidemic will continue for a long time. In the eyes of infectious disease experts, “80% of people are asymptomatic, which is very scary.” A virus with such strong transmissibility will always exist. The western countries’ practice is to wait for the vaccine. After the vaccine comes out, the vulnerable population will be protected, and the fatality rate will drop to the level of conventional influenza, that is, the overall mortality rate is less than 0.5%.
However, Zhang Wenhong estimated that this time point could not be reached within a year, “because the vaccine is ready, it takes time to complete the supply chain and distribute goods…” Moreover, the vaccines developed in the United States need a cold chain, and the activity requirements are very high. The inactivated vaccines developed in China are OK, but they all need a certain period of time. Therefore, “one year’s planning should be the minimum limit for the expectation of the world.”
Global new crown infection is accelerating, and some countries may “close the city twice”
Under the epidemic situation, the recent figures are worrying:
Novel coronavirus pneumonia cases were diagnosed in 30 million 380 thousand cases and 951169 cases died at 19:30 on September 18th at Beijing time. At least 30 countries, including the United States, Brazil, India, Russia, and other countries, have more than 1000 new cases in a single day, including 96423 cases in India, 44206 cases in the United States, and 36303 cases in Brazil.
According to statistics, novel coronavirus pneumonia cases have been added to the world average on average every week. The number of new cases increased by more than 300 thousand cases per day, and the cumulative number of cases worldwide ranged from 20 million to 30 million, which took only 37 days.
In the first month of the outbreak, there were less than 10000 cases in the world, reaching 10 million cases, which took about six months.
In an interview with Sky News on the 18th, British health minister Hancock said that the new crown epidemic is accelerating in the whole UK. When asked whether Britain would adopt a second nationwide “city closure”, Hancock said: “we will take all necessary measures to ensure the safety of the people.” He also told reporters: “the second” closure “will be the last line of defense.
The French Ministry of Health said on the 17th that 10593 new cases had been confirmed in France in the past 24 hours, a new record since the outbreak. The peak of newly confirmed cases on the previous day appeared on September 12, with 10561 cases.
Who director-general Tan Desai has repeatedly warned that the number of new cases in a single day has reached a new high all over the world, indicating that the virus has been steadily spreading at the global level and the epidemic is still accelerating.
Prevention and control of the epidemic situation,
Still can’t be careless!
Source: China Youth Daily (ID: zqbcyol: Zhang Xiaosong) synthesis: Jiefang Daily · Shangguan news, overseas network, people’s daily, CCTV, etc.